What is a loss development triangle, and what does the actuary need from your claims system that reporting does not?
A loss development triangle groups claims by accident or underwriting period and development age so actuaries can estimate ultimate cost, IBNR and reserve movement. It needs immutable claim transactions, evaluation-date reconstruction and clear paid versus incurred measures.
Answer
Short answer
A loss development triangle shows how claim costs mature over time. Rows are accident, underwriting or report periods; columns are development ages such as 12, 24 and 36 months. Actuaries use the pattern to estimate ultimate loss, IBNR and reserves, so the claims system must preserve immutable transactions and rebuild the book exactly as it stood at any evaluation date.
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Likely follow-ups
- Why does a paid triangle develop differently from an incurred triangle, and what do you learn from comparing them?
- What would you do about a single very large claim that distorts one cell of the triangle?
- What breaks in the triangle if the claims department changes its reserving philosophy halfway through the history?
- How would you serve reserving data for a book written in three currencies?
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