mediumConceptScenarioMidSeniorStaff
What does it mean for a model to be calibrated, and why is an uncalibrated probability dangerous?
5 min readUpdated 2026-08-15
Answer
Short answer
30, close to 30% are positive. Most classifiers emit a score that ranks well and is not a probability, so any decision built from expected value is wrong by an amount nobody measures.
Mention isotonic regression where it changes the risk, the owner, or the next check. A useful isotonic regression point should make the answer more testable, not merely longer.
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