The number that survives a delivery review is one whose basis can be inspected
line by line.
Claims intake replatform, BETTER option. 8 months. Bottom-up.
workstream effort role mix cost
(days)
---------------------- ------- -------------------------- ---------
Discovery and design 40 1 architect, 1 BA £42,000
Intake API and gateway 120 2 senior BE, 1 mid BE £104,000
Document ingestion 95 1 senior BE, 1 data eng £85,500
Classification model 70 1 ML eng, 1 data eng £70,000
Exceptions workbench 110 1 senior FE, 1 mid FE, 1 UX £93,500
Mainframe integration 85 1 integration specialist £93,500
Test automation and UAT 90 1 senior QA, 1 mid QA £67,500
Non-functional and
security testing 30 1 security eng £33,000
Deployment and IaC 45 1 platform eng £45,000
Delivery management 80 0.5 delivery lead, 8 months £72,000
------- ---------
Subtotal 765 £706,000
Rate basis: blended by role, UK nearshore mix, 2026 card less 8%
architect £1,100/d BA £1,000/d senior dev £950/d
mid dev £700/d QA £750/d data eng £850/d
ML eng £1,150/d UX £900/d security eng £1,100/d
integration specialist £1,100/d platform eng £1,000/d
delivery lead £900/d
Every line is days x the blended rate of its own mix, so any line can be
recomputed from the card above. Worked example: the intake workstream is
120 days at (950 + 950 + 700) / 3 = £866.67/d, which is £104,000.
Risk-based contingency, applied per line, not as a flat percentage:
Mainframe integration +40% undocumented rules, no test
environment promised yet £37,400
Classification model +25% accuracy target unproven
on their document mix £17,500
Everything else +10% normal estimation variance £54,250
(10% of £542,500, being the £706,000 subtotal less the two
lines already carrying their own risk loading)
---------
Contingency £109,150
TOTAL £815,150
Price to customer at 24% gross margin target ............... £1,072,600
Price offered ................................................ £610,000
<- gap of £462,600. See below.
Two features make this inspectable. Effort is decomposed to workstreams small
enough that someone who has done the work can disagree with a single line, and
contingency is applied per line at a rate justified by a named risk rather than
as a comfortable ten per cent across the total. Flat contingency is arithmetic
that hides exactly where the danger is, and the mainframe line is where this
estimate will be wrong.
The last three lines are the point of showing this. A bottom-up estimate priced
at target margin comes out at over a million against an option quoted at £610,000,
which means the option as described is not deliverable at that price and someone
has to know before signature. That is the conversation presales exists to force,
and it has exactly three honest resolutions: cut scope, accept a lower margin as
a deliberate strategic decision at the right authority level, or decline.
What is not an honest resolution is reducing the effort numbers until the total
fits. This happens routinely, it is invisible in the document, and the mechanism
is always the same — the mainframe line loses its forty per cent, the test days
halve, delivery management drops to a quarter of a person. Each is defensible
alone and the aggregate is a project that is thirty per cent underfunded before
anyone writes code.
The rate basis is stated because a total without it cannot be checked or reused,
and it carries a rate for every role that appears in the mix column rather than
for the convenient half of them. A card that omits the BA, the data engineer or
the UX rate leaves several lines unverifiable, which quietly defeats the purpose
of a bottom-up sheet: a reviewer who cannot reproduce a line has to take it on
trust, and the lines people take on trust are the ones that turn out wrong. It
also names the discount already applied, which matters in negotiation: a
procurement team asking for ten per cent needs to be answered from a position
where you know what has already been given.